Cargo Thieves Have Your Holiday Calendar. The Memorial Day Risk Window Closes Wednesday.

Cargo theft losses hit nearly $725 million in 2025 — a 60% jump from the year before — and the average haul per theft climbed to $273,990. Thieves are taking fewer swings and connecting harder. That's the environment your freight is sitting in right now.

Verisk CargoNet's risk window runs through Wednesday, May 27. Over the five Memorial Day periods from 2021 through 2025, CargoNet recorded 221 theft events. In 2025 alone, that number hit 66 — a five-year high. Long weekends are good for thieves because loaded freight sits still, facilities close, and the person who could verify a routing change isn't picking up the phone.

You may have seen the Q1 2026 headline: incident volume is down 5.3%. Don't let that fool you. Losses held flat at $131 million for the quarter. Fewer incidents, same damage — because organized groups are being selective.

Here's what they're actually doing. Criminal networks are buying legitimate motor carrier authorities on social media marketplaces for around $10,000, then using those credentials to book loads through brokers who think they're dealing with a real carrier. Danny Ramon, Director of Intelligence and Response at Overhaul, says deceptive pickup fraud climbed 31% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and now accounts for one in ten theft incidents. Some groups spend that same $10,000 on a full vinyl wrap to dress a truck as a legitimate carrier. The impersonation is good enough to fool a dock worker.

Keith Lewis, VP of Operations at Verisk CargoNet, put it straight: "The concern this year is not only that theft activity may increase over the holiday period, but that organized groups are becoming more selective in the freight they pursue."

California logged 70 Memorial Day theft events over the five-year window, Texas 31, Illinois 19. Georgia and Florida round out the top five and almost never get the warning. If you run the Southeast corridor, act like you're in the red zone — because you are.

Three Things to Do Before Wednesday

Don't drop a loaded trailer unattended anywhere in this window. If a routing change comes in, verify it through a communication channel you established before the load moved — not a number that called you out of nowhere. And if you're sitting on a dormant MC authority or considering selling one, treat those credentials like house keys: CargoNet warns that sellers of carrier authorities can face civil and criminal liability when those authorities get used to steal freight.

The thieves have your holiday calendar. The question is whether your load-verification protocol is tighter than their impersonation budget.