LA Port's May Surge Is Borrowed Freight — Here's How Long You Have

The Port of Los Angeles just moved 840,165 TEUs in May — 17% more than a year ago — and Executive Director Gene Seroka says June and July look even stronger. Good news, except the port's own budget already pencils in a 7% volume decline for next fiscal year, which means the surge you're driving through right now is borrowed time.

Use it accordingly.

---

The Box Count Is Real, But So Is the Reason It's Temporary

May's 26% jump in loaded imports wasn't driven by Americans suddenly buying more stuff. Shippers pulled future cargo forward before the next tariff lurch — a rational hedge, not a demand signal. When that hedging runs its course, the volume goes with it.

The port's own numbers make this plain. Its FY 2026-27 adopted budget is built on a forecast of 9.3 million container units — 7% below the current fiscal year forecast. The institution projecting this surge is the same one projecting its end.

There's a structural piece underneath that too. China's share of containerized imports through Los Angeles has fallen from 61% in 2020 to roughly 40% today, as China pursues new trade relationships in Africa and Europe. Frontloading masks that retreat for now. It won't mask it forever.

Seroka framed it clearly at the port's June 16 media briefing:

"We're seeing cargo move for a combination of reasons including inventory replenishment, concerns about fuel costs, trade-policy uncertainty and preparation for upcoming retail seasons. Companies are operating with shorter planning horizons and taking advantage of opportunities when they emerge."

Shorter planning horizons. That's a polite way of saying nobody knows what tariff policy looks like in 90 days, and shippers are moving boxes while the window is open. So should you.

---

Fewer Drivers, More Boxes — Do the Math

Here's what the port volume story leaves out: the same tariff chaos that created this freight surge also flushed drivers out of the market.

The for-hire interstate driver segment shed 5% of its workforce during 2025, according to NTI's 2026 Driver Market Forecast. Those drivers did not come back when shippers started calling. The driver pool is smaller heading into a volume spike, which is exactly how you get a 30% year-over-year jump in truckload spot rates.

ACT Research describes the current environment as a "supply-driven freight cycle." That phrasing matters. This isn't a demand-driven expansion where rising volumes pull everyone along — it's a situation where a shrunken supply of available trucks is doing most of the work. The Driver Availability Index fell sharply after showing ample supply for more than three years. Capacity that evaporated quietly in 2025 isn't coming back fast.

The port's own data underlines the bottleneck. Seroka noted that 20,000 drivers are licensed to do port business in LA, but only about 9,000 make at least one port trip per week. Those boxes are competing for the same trucks that were already moving.

---

This Is What Driver Leverage Actually Looks Like

Sign-on bonuses are returning. Pay increases are hitting hazmat, tanker, team, and owner-operator lanes first — the high-value specializations where the driver shortage bites hardest. The fleets that waited to compete for drivers are already behind.

Craig Shaver of the National Transportation Institute put it directly:

"When the market fully turns, competition for experienced drivers will accelerate quickly. Fleets that are already struggling to attract drivers today could face even greater pressure as freight volumes recover."

That's not a warning for the big carriers with HR departments. That's a warning for small fleets running lean. The rate environment you're in right now is the most favorable it's been in three years. Price accordingly.

Brokers know this window is closing. They will use every tool available to lock in today's rates before carriers figure out their leverage — favorable-looking short-term contracts, volume promises that don't materialize, per-mile rates that look good against last year's depression-era baseline. Read the fine print before you sign anything that runs past Q3.

---

Peak Freight Kills Paperwork Discipline

When loads are stacking up and the phone doesn't stop, nobody pulls the MVR. The medical card expiration gets noticed when a driver is already out the door. The Clearinghouse annual query sits undone because there are three loads to book before noon.

That's how a good freight market turns into a compliance hole you dig yourself into for the next two years.

FMCSA compliance reviews don't take a holiday during freight booms. An out-of-service driver caught mid-peak costs more in lost revenue than a systematic review of your 49 CFR Part 391 document stack ever would.

The forward-looking problem is worse: shippers get selective again when volumes soften. The better-paying accounts — the ones with real contracts, not spot-market scraps — will ask about your safety rating, your insurance history, your compliance record before they hand you freight. FleetCollect's DQF Compliance Portal keeps all 18 driver-qualification documents current so that when a shipper runs due diligence on your operation, you pass.

Get your house in order while you have the revenue to support it, not after you've lost a load because a medical card expired three months ago.

---

Don't Mistake a Tariff Spike for a Recovery

Seroka was direct about what normalcy looks like from here: it will take months for supply chains to normalize after the Strait of Hormuz reopens following the suspension of Iran war hostilities. That reopening will reset ocean rate dynamics, and the land-side rate momentum helping drayage carriers could soften faster than the TEU count suggests.

The 2021-2022 cycle should still be fresh. Carriers who built their cost structures around pandemic-era rates got crushed when the market corrected. The setup here rhymes: borrowed demand ends.

The port's own accountants have already written the next chapter — 9.3 million container units in fiscal 2026-27, down 7%. That's not a pessimistic outlier. That's the institution's budget.

---

The Window Is Open Right Now

Spot rates are up 30% year-over-year. Driver supply is tight. Shippers are desperate enough that mid-size carriers have pricing power they haven't seen since 2021.

Lock in better contracts while you have leverage. Get your compliance documentation squared away so you qualify for the shippers who will get picky again when volume softens. Don't spend a rate spike on overhead you can't carry through the correction.

The port's own budget says this fades inside twelve months. Move now.

Photo by Lacyec on Unsplash